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Learning Emergency Management

2009 Feb 10 Posted by Mark

I was astonished when a nearby city of 60,000 decided not to hire their first emergency manager, sighting the economy as the reason. In an effort to convince the city manager he was making a mistake, I prepared a 30 page preliminary hazard analysis for this city manager. Unfortunately, I did not have enough unfettered access to historical data to use the Hazus Software, so I completed a basic sampling of the data the old fashion way. I used a pencil, paper and a calculator to arrive at my final predictions. Imagine my surprise when I received a Hazus Newsletter (HotZone) from FEMA that featured a nearby city.

In the Hotzone Newsletter, a city less than 20 miles away, Sugarhouse UT, was evaluated for a 7.0 earthquake by a University of Utah Graduate Student using the Hazus Software. When I compared the numbers from my sampling of a 7.0 earthquake to that of the Hazus version, I was well within the margin of error I had predicted. In fact, I was within 1%, while the margin of error was 5%.
While this may not seem very impressive to some, it was extremely impressive to me. The reason? Prior to taking classes with Capella, I never knew how to figure a margin of error. Prior to learning at Capella, my statistical reasoning skills were marginal at best. I am now competing with a software program and a graduate student, and holding my own. I know, I’ll try hard not to break my arm while patting myself on the back.
While some of the classes we take at Capella may not be our favorite classes, all of these classes will help shape and mold us for the future. Sometimes when I take a class, I can’t imagine what I have learned from that class, then a month or even six months later, I use a formula or a quote I learned in that class. I am sure that I am not the only one that has had this type of experience. Please feel free to share your stories with me and the blog staff how Capella has advanced you in your career. What have you learned that has helped?, … Mark

Take care and stay safe,
Mark S. Warnick

February 10, 2009 | Filed under: Capella, Capella University, Public Safety Signals, Public safety, disaster, homeland security, online college, online degrees, online university
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4 Responses to “Learning Emergency Management”

Rich Davies Says:

Well done! However, in my opinion I doubt if any serious HAZUS user would claim a 5% margin of error with a specific HAZUS run and the “real world”. Things are just too dependent on the baseline data and specifics of the real earthquake. HAZUS does it pretty much like you did with paper and pencil … it uses accepted damage and injury models and starts with the FEMA provided HAZUS database and can “just” do it faster … the Sugarhouse, UT HAZUS runs also benefited from the efforts of the researchers to improve the quality of the building models and some of the damage models.

February 10th, 2009 at 4:50 pm

Mark Warnick Says:

Rich,
I couldn’t agree with you more; however the point I was making is that when I learned it I seriously doubted I would ever use it again. There is a method to the madness of learning, … Mark

February 12th, 2009 at 4:26 pm

Michael Brown Says:

Mark, kudos to you for attempting to reflect a decision by the City manager you mentioned that will come back to hurt him. I think my approach would have been to appeal to his sense of career longevity; pointing out to him that it might be best to provide a buffer between him and a possible social event he might not be capable or desirous in handling. Thus, an EM might be a prudent career move!

March 17th, 2009 at 7:41 am

Robert Allen Says:

Mark, I am just getting into the Emergency Management emphasis after getting my Master’s in Security Management form Webster U. Thanks for the inspiring words and I look forward to meeting you someday.

April 27th, 2009 at 7:00 am

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